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Chip Bayless Football 

Top Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 11

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By Chip Bayless (click Howie for more Chip)

 

 

 

1) Elijah Moore

Ever since Elijah Moore’s rookie season with the lowly, decrepit New York Jets, NFL decision makers and fantasy owners alike have known the young speedster has special talent.

Moore has that De’Andre Swift, Jahmyr Gibbs-like quality where it feels like he’s always one touch and a little space away from taking any opportunity to the house.

It became blatantly obvious his rookie season that Jets staffers recognized this game-breaking quality as well as they would frequently feature Moore in the gameplan via screens and end-arounds, often on third or fourth down in a situation where they were clearly hoping Moore would just be able to completely bail out their inept offense by scoring on a play call that wasn’t even that creative.

Now in Cleveland, Moore has thus far had a season that’s about as disappointing as Archduke Franz Ferdinand riding around in a topless car, and Moore’s impact on fantasy rosters is similar to World War I’s impact on Germany’s economy.




But recently with Deshaun Watson’s play improving, Moore’s fantasy prospects are looking up.

Additionally, if you dig into the stats there is certainly room for optimism when it comes to Moore’s ROS fantasy prospects, and his nearly 20% target share (19.15, per Next Gen Stats) is nothing to scoff at.

Moore ranks 3rd in average separation (per Next Gen Stats) among receivers and 6th among all players, and his 57 targets are tied for 38th among WRs.

Moore also has also seen at least four targets in 8/9 games so far, has seen at least five targets in four of his last five weeks, and has 30+ receiving yards and 3+ catches in the majority of his contests.

Moore has also accrued at least seven targets in six of his nine games in 2023, is averaging a 76% snap share, and has played at least 62% of snaps in every game (per FantasyPros).

The Browns have also shown they likely view Moore similarly to how the Jets once viewed him, as the Browns occasionally put Moore in the backfield and draw up at least a few plays every game designed to get the ball in his hands whether its an end-around, screen, or standard handoff.

After all, Moore has caught at least two balls in every game in 2023, and the Browns have given him eight carries out of the backfield so far.

Moore is already owned in about 35% of ESPN leagues, but his ownership percentage has been steadily dropping along with his mediocre fantasy production all season, so there’s a chance he’s been recently dropped in your league too.

One final, critical point you absolutely need to keep in mind when considering Elijah Moore: he wears a pitch-black visor and an arm sleeve that matches his gloves.

 

 

2) Tyler Conklin

Let’s get this out of the way: the Jets offense is about as good at football as a blind and deaf version of the 2008 Lions. But that doesn’t mean their roster is entirely devoid of fantasy prospects, like the recently trustworthy Tyler Conklin.

Conklin has always been somewhat of an underrated tight end, and if you look back at his career history you’ll see he has an unlucky streak of being replaced by elite tight ends (see Hockenson) preventing him from furthering his development and chemistry with his quarterback.

Conklin has impressive ball skills, crisp route-running ability, and unique agility for his size and the TE position in general.

Due to working in the middle of the field so often (and due to simply being a massive human being), Conklin often acts as a security blanket or dump-off destination for a panicking Zach Wilson when the Jets’ horrendous play design inevitably explodes due to equally horrendous execution.

Conklin is clearly second in terms of receiving share on the Jets to only Garrett Wilson, and the fact that he’s played at least 55% of snaps in every game, and is averaging a 69% snap share on the season (per FantasyPros) doesn’t hurt his fantasy outlook.



Here’s how Conklin’s numbers compare to other 2023 TEs:

Among all Jets players, Conklin is 2nd in receptions, targets, and receiving yards to only Garrett Wilson (per ESPN).

Besides those numbers, Conklin has also seen four targets in seven of his last eight games, and has scored at least nine fantasy points in five of those weeks.

He’s also gone for 50+ yards and has caught 4+ receptions in the majority of his outings, which is actually pretty consistent production for the TE position.

Conklin is especially hot lately, as he’s scored 12+ fantasy points, caught at least six passes, and had 60+ receiving yards in back-to-back weeks.

Worst-case scenario, the Jets’ TE1 is likely an improvement over your backup TE in 12-team or greater leagues at the very least (and maybe an improvement over your starter too unless you have a top-5 TE).

Considering the state of available TEs, Conklin’s back-to-back double-digit fantasy weeks likely even merits starting status for especially TE-needy teams wracked with injuries or byes.

Conklin has already produced like a TE2, and he will profile as a TE1 if he has a third-straight double-digit fantasy week in Week 11.

 

 

3) Ty Chandler

It doesn’t take a Josh Dobbs to figure out why Ty Chandler cracks this list. In Week 11 of the NFL season, almost all available running back are hot garbage.



Although, if you are still desperate for a running back this week or are suffering from significant injuries and/or bye weeks, Chandler may just be your saving grace.

Vikings starter, Alexander Mattison got concussed in the third quarter, leaving Chandler and Kene Nwangwu as the sole healthy backs available.

Chandler responded to his 15 totes with 45 yards and a touchdown, while Nwangwu only received two carries that went for nine yards.

Chandler had five rushing attempts to Mattison’s four prior to his exit, so there’s a chance the Vikings’ coaching staff has some substantial confidence in Chandler and view him capable of handling nearly a starting workload.

Based on how carries were divvied  appears to have a role in the Minnesota backfield even if Mattison returns in time for a Week 11 matchup at Denver.

Furthermore, with a plethora of passing weapons, there’s no reason for defenses to focus on stopping the Vikings run game.

This leaves Chandler with plenty of fantasy potential as the Vikings are the 11th-highest scoring offense this season (per NFL.com) and he should see his fair share of open holes courtesy of defenses locking in on Hockenson, Addison, or Jefferson.

While Chandler makes this week’s list and will undoubtedly be the top claim for the majority of fantasy managers due to the current state of the RB position, fantasy managers should temper expectations.

Even with Mattison’s injury, Chandler failed to garner even 45% of snaps and had seen less than 5% of snaps in six-straight weeks prior to Week 10 (per FantasyPros).

However, if Mattison were to be ruled out completely this week, then Chandler profiles as an RB2 with RB1 upside and a lineup lock for many teams if your current RB2 is someone in the Chubba Hubbard, Antonio Gibson, Tajae Spears tier.

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