Top Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 4
1) DeMario Douglas
DeMario “pop” Douglas was widely reported to be the Patriots’ undisputed number one receiver coming into the season.
It didn’t exactly pan out that way over the first two weeks, as Douglas reeled in only two catches in Week 1 only to follow that up with a doughnut in Week 2.
As a result, Douglas’ ownership has plummeted to just under 30% in ESPN leagues.
Finally, in Week 3, Douglas looked like by far the Patriots top receiver and was so in terms of target share.
Through three weeks he leads Patriots WRs in yards, receptions, targets, and fantasy points.
Among all WRs, Douglas also ranks 5th in average separation (per Next Gen Stats) in addition to tied for 3rd in forced missed or broken tackles per touch (per Opta Stats).
.@popshotta3 getting out in space.
📺: @NFLonPrime pic.twitter.com/PdZeMUgGjA
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) September 20, 2024
He was also 21st among all WRs in fantasy points in Week 3.
Douglas is an agile, dynamic playmaker with the ball in his hands, and its obvious why the Patriots were trying to get him the rock so often against the Jets in Week 3; however, in an offense as porous as the Patriots, the challenge is just that: getting Douglas the football.
Although, because the Patriots are such an awful football team, they will likely be playing from behind in tons of games which means we should be seeing more targets on a consistent basis for Demario Douglas going forward.
Against a talented 49ers team in Week 4, Douglas is worth no more than a risky flex play in 12-team or deeper leagues if you’re hoping for a similar game scrips where the Patriots are point chasing.
Regardless on if you plan on starting him in Week 4, he’s worth a speculative add considering if he puts together another similar performance to the one he had in Week 3 then he’ll instantly become one of the most added WRs in Week 5 and you will likely be unable to get him.
2) Wan’Dale Robinson
On the face, starting a Giants’ WR not named Malik seems like an emergency. Although, if you dig into Wan’Dale Robinson’s 2023 stats you’ll see there’s room for optimism.
Considering Robinson has managed to put up at least 9.8 fantasy points and four targets (including eight targets last week) in every game so far this season, and currently sits at 35 in terms of PRK, he has a decent floor and can already be considered a startable flex/WR3 in 12-team or deeper leagues.
In terms of this year’s group of fantasy wideouts, Robinson ranks:
- Tied for 15th in receptions
- Tied for 16th in targets
- Tied for 18th in receptions for 1st downs (per ESPN)
- 20th in target share (per FantasyPros)
- 24th in YAC (per ESPN)
.@BaldyNFL breaks down Daniel Jones’ performance vs. the Browns in a Giants edition of Baldy’s Breakdown pic.twitter.com/gPTymhHkMH
— New York Giants (@Giants) September 23, 2024
In addition, Wan’Dale sits at 20th in average separation (from Next Gen Stats), and has the 11th-highest red zone target share at 38% (according to Pro Football Reference).
If it wasn’t for the Giants’ drafting one of the undisputed top-3 WRs in this year’s draft, Robinson would have been the most-hyped member of this Giants’ WR corps in terms of fantasy purposes.
Sort of like the Kadarius that Toney never was, Robinson is a shifty, explosive weapon that can do damage both as a short area man-beater, a YAC maven, and a legitimate deep threat.
Robinson also has the most trustworthy hands on the Giants roster outside of their top draft pick, and the presence of Nabers means defenses aren’t even remotely focused on stopping Wan’Dale Robinson at all.
The Giants know that, and as a result the Giants have given Robinson the fourth-most red zone looks through three weeks and he has accounted for 24% of all the Giants’ targets (20th-best target share in the NFL).
Wan’Dale in the end zone!!
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/YPUU4zKZjB
— New York Giants (@Giants) September 15, 2024
Throw in the fact that the Giants no longer have Saquon Barkley and are usually throwing due to playing from behind, and you’ve got one of the most sought-after fantasy free agents of Week 4.
Rostered in only 14.8% of ESPN fantasy leagues at the moment, there’s about an 85% chance that Robinson is available for you to claim this week, and he’s probably a far better option than the worst player you currently have on your bench.
3) Tyler Conklin
Finally, in Week 3, Conklin looked like that security blanket for Rodgers that anyone who drafted him was hoping for.
In fact, against the Patriots he led all Jets pass catchers in yards with 93 while no other Jet even broke 50, was tied for the team lead in catches with Garrett Wilson with five, was second in targets with six to only Wilson, and led the Jets in yards per catch with 18.6.
Conklin frequently acted as a mismatch on slow linebackers and smaller DBs, being both a man-beater and a savvy zone coverage dissector.
The Jets are clearly aware of Conklin’s unique receiving skillset considering Conklin leads the position group in routes run through three weeks, as reported by rotowire.
Those routes are paying dividends, as Conklin is also 10th in among tight ends in yards per route while currently ranking eighth in air yards per snap (also per rotowire).
His route running is among the sharpest in the league as far as tight ends are concerned as he boasts the eighth-best average separation (reports Next Gen Stats) and the sixth-highest receiving success rate (according to Pro Football Reference).
Given how thin the TE position is, Conklin’s 14 fantasy points in Week 3 immediately puts him on the fantasy radar. If you aren’t interested in claiming Conklin this week, another TE-desperate team definitely will.
Here’s how Conklin ranks so far through three weeks compared to 2024 TEs:
- 12th in fantasy points
- 4th in yards per reception (per FantasyPros)
- 5th in avg. YAC above expectation (per Next Gen Stats)
- 10th in receiving yards
- 11th in YAC
- 15th in catch % (per Next Gen Stats)
Conklin has strong, natural hands for the tight end position and demonstrated clear chemistry with Rodgers.
He has a knack for finding the soft spots in zone coverage, and he’s a big-bodied target with deceptive speed, as evidenced by him having the third-most catches for 20+ yards among TEs.
The big man has elite acceleration and agility for the TE position as well, and he’s nightmare fuel for defensive backs once he gets moving downhill (10th in YAC per reception among TEs).
Rostered in only about a quarter of leagues (27%), it is likely you’ll find him on your waiver wire this week.
If you need a TE in Week 4, you could do far worse than a player as visibly talented as Conklin (sixth among TEs in YAC per reception & third in yards per target) and one of Aaron Rodgers’ top targets squaring off against a shoddy Denver team.
If you’re looking for one final Conklin statistic to tip you over the edge? He ranks second in snap percentage so far among 2024 TEs (according to FantasyPros), just above Travis Kelce in third place.
(according to Opta Stats, he also leads TEs so far in total efficiency versus expected, whatever the hell that means)
