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Chip Bayless FEATURED Football Latest 

Top Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 3

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By Chip Bayless (click Howie for more Chip)

 

 

 

1) Quentin Johnston

Quentin Johnston was drafted 21st overall in the 2023 by the Chargers out of TCU, and his college highlights are straight up ridiculous if you get the chance to look them up sometime.

After a disappointing rookie season, Johnston looks like a completely different player now in a new system with Harbaugh as his head coach, and he’s being utilized like it.

Johnston has at least five target in back to back weeks now which is a decent floor, and in Week 2 against the Panthers he led the Chargers in receiving yards, receptions, targets, touchdowns, and longest catch.

His 10.2 yards per reception average was also second to just Ladd McConkey.

Johnston looks like a confident, strong, and explosive WR and a far cry away from the shoddy route runner with the inconsistent hands we saw last season.

Through the NFL’s first two weeks in 2024, he actually leads all receivers in broken tackles on receptions.

Among WRs through two weeks, Johnston ranks:

While the Chargers aren’t throwing much in their new Harbaugh-led scheme, Quentin Johnston has a significant share of the team’s volume when they do pass and has thus far accounted for 38% of all the Chargers’ 2024 air yards (20th among WRs).

Johnston has top-notch size, a phenomenal catch radius, and ball-tracking ability like a center fielder.

Despite running a 4.52 forty-yard dash coming out of college, Johnston definitely has unique “game speed” as he seems to have a knack for getting behind defenders who supposedly run faster.

His first touchdown was a one-on-one go route where Herbert showed complete trust in his big-bodied target.

 

Herbert lofted the ball to Johnston basically immediately upon getting the shotgun snap, and Johnston used his elite size and strength to box out the defender for the long TD catch.

The Chargers made sure to involve Johnston early and often as he had two catches for 32 yards and a TD and the Chargers’ first offensive possession.

Johnston’s scored again later on a crossing route concept that was clearly drawn up for him where other receivers essentially just acted as obstacles while they pretended to run routes.

 

Over the first two weeks, the Chargers seemingly view Johnston as their top WR and red zone target, which is in itself a role that makes him fantasy-relevant regardless of the other variables affecting his production.



Through two weeks, Johnston leads Chargers WRs in receiving yards, receptions, touchdowns, fantasy points, and is tied for the team lead in targets with 11.

If you can claim Johnston this week, he’s worth an immediate FLEX play in 12-team PPR or deeper leagues, and considering his PRK currently sits at 22, if Johnston keeps this up he’ll be a dependable WR2 on a weekly basis.

 

 

2) Alec Pierce

Through two weeks, it is Alec Pierce instead of Michael Pittman who surprisingly leads Colts WRs in receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and fantasy points.

He is also second in targets to only Pittman, and those looks have been paying dividends for his team as he ranks 17th in passer rating when targeted, as reported by Pro Football Reference.

Alec Pierce is a speedy (2nd in ADOT), young playmaker who many have touted as someone with huge upside for years. In 2024, Pierce might finally be turning that upside into fantasy production.

 

While it has only been two weeks, so far some of Alec Pierce’s WR rankings include:

  • 8th in fantasy points
  • Tied for 1st in TDs
  • 3rd in yards per target (per Pro Football Reference)
  • 6th in receiving yards
  • 8th in yards per catch (per ESPN)
  • Tied for 17th in receptions for 1st downs (per ESPN)

Thanks to acting as the Colts’ clear #2 receiver opposite Pittman in addition to the team’s top deep threat (2nd in average targeted air yards), Pierce has managed to put up fantasy WR2 stats thus far.

He’s also accounted for just over 30% of all the Colts 2024 air yards, as reported by Next Gen Stats while accruing 25% of their red zone targets.


Both of Pierces’ TDs have been incredibly impressive plays, with the first one in Week 1 coming on a 57-yard highlight reel of a play where he torched multiple defenders, while his Week 2 TD came on a play that showed clear chemistry between Pierce and Richardson as he stayed in bounds to haul in a critical score to keep the game alive.

 

Looking for one final Pierce stat to convince you to erect a statue in his honor in a landmark location in Indianapolis (like Philadelphia did for a fictional movie character)?

Pierce is playing 90% of Colts offensive snaps so far in 2024, a stat that ranks right up there with some of the most elite WRs in the league as Pierce’s snap share ranks 14th among all receivers this season (per FantasyPros).

He also leads WRs in receiving success rate, according to Pro Football Reference.

If you can grab him, he’s not the worst FLEX play in 12-team or deeper leagues considering he’s top-10 among WRs in a number of significant statistics.

 

 

3) Derek Carr

Much like the resurgence of J.K. Dobbins and Sam Darnold, Derek Carr is suddenly looking like the best version of himself in a year where he maybe has the best all-around team surrounding him that he’s ever had in his career.

Carr has sneaky mobility, the arm strength to hit any throw in the playbook, and his years of experience show in his pocket awareness, which is among the best in the league.

Throw in his ability to zip timing routes into tight windows combined with his ability to put the perfect amount of air under his deep balls and you’ve got the makings of an elite quarterback (again, based on what we’ve seen over two weeks).

After demolishing a seemingly incompetent opponent in Week 1, the Saints faced Jerruh and the vaunted Cowboys who looked unstoppable in all three phases the week prior.

The Saints answered the bell by blowing them out and putting a 40 burger on the scoreboard.


Through two weeks, we have no reason to believe that Derek Carr and the 2024 Saints aren’t somehow one of the best teams in the NFL as Carr leads quarterbacks in a number of stats including TD% and YPA (according to Pro Football Reference) .

In fact, through two Weeks Derek Carr currently sits at, in terms of QBs:

  • 2nd in fantasy points per game
  • 1st in yards per attempt (per ESPN)
  • 1st in QBR & passer rating
  • Tied for 1st in passing touchdowns
  • 2nd in completion percentage (per ESPN)

Carr is 12th in passing yards, but that is arguably because he and the Saints were so effective that they didn’t need to pass more, pulled some of their starters as games got late, and ran the clock out with Kamara.

Some evidence for that can be found in the fact that Carr currently ranks fourth in average completed air yards per passing attempt, and in the fact that Carr leads the NFL in completion percentage above expectation (per Next Gen Stats).

Carr is also seventh in passing success rate, third in yards per completion, has been sacked at the seventh-lowest rate, and has the third-lowest bad throw percentage so far in 2024 (reports Pro Football Reference).

Finally, Carr leads the NFL in passing yards off play action at the moment with 258 yards off run fakes.

Even if you don’t believe in Carr, at least mull the concept that Carr has Kamara to avert defensive attention and dump the ball off to for easy points, Shaheed as an emerging dangerous deep threat, and Olave as a go-to guy and man coverage beater.

Additionally, the Saints have a turnover-hungry defense that gets the ball back to Carr quickly and easily.

 

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