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Chip Bayless FEATURED Football Latest 

Top Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 12

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By Chip Bayless (click Howie for more Chip)

 

 

 

 

1) Jonnu Smith

Uhhh… what the fuck was that?

After posting relatively modest numbers and scoring double-digit fantasy points in only three of his weeks leading into Week 11, Jonnu Smith exploded for a season-high of 28 fantasy points thanks in large part to a TD on the first drive in, addition to a busted coverage which led to his longest score of the season.



After that monster performance, Smith is now TE8 on the season, and he’s had at least six targets in five of his past six weeks which is absolutely insane volume as far as tight ends are concerned.

Going back to Week 5 against New England, Smith also has at least four targets in every single game.

He’s been rewarding the Dolphins with some elite efficiency, and he has the 10th-highest passer rating when targeted in terms of 2024 TEs, and ranks 24th in that category among all players.

Furthermore, he’s broken the fifth-most tackles on receptions among TEs and ranks 11th in receiving success rate among the position group (22nd among all positions, per Pro Football Reference).

That kind of volume and consistency is unfathomable outside of this year’s undisputed top-5 TEs, and now Jonnu Smith may very well be in that category.

Right now, Jonnu ranks (in terms of TEs):

  • 3rd in YAC
  • Tied for 4th in yards after contact per reception (per FantasyPros)
  • 8th in receiving yards
  • 9th in yards after contact (per FantasyPros)
  • Tied for 9th in receptions

Smith can now be considered an absolute must-start TE1, and the fact that he is available in about 70% of ESPN leagues is egregious given his receiving skillset, unique speed for the position, hulking size, and role in a productive offense (as long as Tua is under center).

The Dolphins have good reason to look Jonnu’s way, as he might have the best size/speed combination at the tight end position and has deceptive explosiveness.

Jonnu Smith currently has the fifth-most catches for 10+ yards among TEs, and he’s tied for sixth in catches for 30+ yards (according to FantasyPros).

He’s also seventh in YAC per reception, and ranks 11th in YAC over expectation.

Tua and the Dolphins are finding the speedy, big-bodied target early and often as Smith has accounted for 17% of all the Dolphins’ targets in 2024, a figure which sits at 10th among TEs.

Over his past six weeks, Smith is averaging 14.2 fantasy points, 6.5 targets, and 62 receiving yards per game. Screw a TE, those are receiver numbers if you ask me.

According to ESPN Analytics, he’s also third among TEs in open rating (19th among all players) and third in yards per route (23rd among all positions), has the 11th-best receiver score among TEs, ranks 10th in open rating in terms of TEs, and has the 31st-highest receiver score among all positions.

Smith is undoubtedly becoming one of the key cogs in this Dolphins offense, and his hands and YAC skills make him one of the best chain-movers in the NFL, as in part evidenced by the fact that he has the fifth-most catches resulting in first downs among TEs (per ESPN).

 

 

2) Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

Westbrook-Ikhine is available in about 98% of ESPN leagues, so he’s definitely one of the more under-the-radar names this week; however, since Hopkins got traded away he has been starting opposite Calvin Ridley in a Titans offense that is almost always throwing due to playing from behind which has been yielding FLEX-worthy fantasy results.

Over his past six weeks, Westbrook-Ikhine has scored at least nine fantasy points in 4/6 games and has scored at least 6.1 fantasy points in every game for six weeks straight.

Over that span, he’s also scored a touchdown in 5/6 games, and after his monster 90+ yard touchdown last week, its clear that those TDs are no accident and are a result of his breakaway speed (19th among WRs in scrimmage yards per touch) in addition to knack for boxing out defenders to be a trusted red zone target (has accounted for 18% of the Titans’ red zone targets).

He’s playing an absolutely insane amount of snaps too which has been helping his fantasy potential and is again a sign that his TDs might not be that much of an accident considering he’s basically always on the field. Over his past four weeks, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has played 92%, 97%, 100%, and 85% of snaps in each game respectively (85% last week).


Throughout his past six weeks he’s also averaging just over four targets and 11 fantasy points per game.

Calvin Ridley gets all the attention in this offense as he’s the only highly-paid and proven healthy playmaker on the team at the moment, so Westbrook-Ikhine is never game planned against and likely won’t face any additional over-the-top coverage to mitigate his TD potential.

Looking for one final Westbrook-Ikhine statistic to blindly convince you like you’re a Trump supporter who thinks China will pay for the tariffs? Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has the 14th-highest average yards per target among WRs, and he ranks 19th among all positions (per Pro Football Reference).

 

 

3) Cam Akers

The only reason Akers is even on the radar is it insanely difficult to find any RBs on the waiver wire at this point who garner even a few touches on a consistent basis, and the Vikings have made it clear that they traded for Akers to give Aaron Jones the necessary rest he needs on for both short and long-term success.

Akers has seen at least 12 touches in each of his past two weeks (granted Jones was injured for one), and he has at least eight touches in each of his past three weeks.

Over that span Akers has also been involved in the passing game each week which has been encouraging as he does have at least one reception in each of his past three weeks.


Again, while this figure isn’t that impressive as far as overall statistics go, it is noteworthy that Akers has scored at least 5.7 fantasy points in three straight weeks as well, and if you’re an RB-needy team this week due to injuries or byes he might be your best available option on the waiver wire as far as RBs go.

There’s also a chance he’s finally regaining some pop after having his career de-railed by injury, as he does have nine runs of at least 10 yards which ranks 31st among this year’s RB crop despite Akers only having less than 70 total rushing attempts on the year.

Even with Aaron Jones, Akers did handle 37% of the Vikings’ backfield snaps in Week 11 and has seen at least 20% of snaps in three straight weeks.

While Akers might only be a change-of-pace back and goal-line vulture at this point, that role in itself is hard to come by on the fantasy waiver wire at this point in the season.

If you’re like me and you have at least two RBs on bye or injured, you could do far worse than Akers this week considering the other duds available.

If it makes you feel any better, this is his second stint in Minnesota so the team seems to have made it clear they value his skillset from the coaching staff to the highest levels of the organization (regardless of his garbage efficiency – last in rush yards over expected) by trading for him this season and giving him the workload he’s seen in recent weeks.

 

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