The Key to the Eagles’ Passing Game is DeVonta Smith Despite Crucial Drop

 

 

 

The Eagles are in the midst of a season unlike any other in recent memory. Philadelphia has an undisputedly elite quarterback, a running back who is maybe having the best season any RB has ever had, a defense that flies around with a playmaking ferocity we haven’t seen since the Brian Dawkins days, and a pair of receivers that compliment each other like no other dynamic duo in the NFL.

Although AJ Brown is one of the top-3 receivers in the NFL by most advanced metrics, it is the other, slighter, often less noticed member of the Eagles’ duo who has been absolutely critical to the Eagles’ 2024 success.

DeVonta Smith was once recognized as the best player in the entire nation when he was in college, and the most dominant and complete performances against quality opponents (so not the Giants or Cowboys) Philly has had on both sides of the ball this season have come in games where Smith has been most involved in the offense.

The Eagles’ winning streak was insanely impressive and deserves to be commended; however, as we look towards the playoffs the more telling games that can be used as a better measuring stick are the clashes against legitimate opponents towards the latter half of the season – and games with a greater margin of victory at that.

When it comes to such a category, the games that stick out so far down the stretch of this season are undoubtedly the Eagles’ win against the Bengals (the only game the Eagles have won by 20 points – again excluding the dumpster fires that are the Giants and Cowboys), and their victory against the Steelers (the only 10-win team they’ve beaten since their bye).

What to both of those games have in common? They were also two of DeVonta Smith’s best games and the games in which he was most seamlessly worked into the offense.

Both games were two of only three games so far this season that Smith has had at least 85 receiving yards. They also happened to be two of the three games that the Eagles have outscored their opponents by at least 14 points in.

While Smith has missed some time this season due to a hamstring injury, Eagles fans know he is in the prime of his career based on the eye test, and it he does have a few impressive stats from this season to back it up.

There’s a reason the Eagles target DeVonta in third down and critical situations: he’s one of the most dependable, sure-handed WRs in the NFL. It’s no surprise the Eagles targeted him on this play with the game essentially on the line considering his skillset, and he rewarded Philadelphia with one of the craziest one-handed toe drag touchdowns we’ve seen in recent memory:

SMITTY IS NOT OF THIS WORLD 🤯👽@DeVontaSmith_6 | #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/PZPAGdLtqh

— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) November 3, 2024

Among all 2024 WRs, DeVonta Smith currently boasts the fourth-highest catch percentage (according to Next Gen Stats).

ESPN Analytics also ranks him among the top-20 WRs in open rating, catch rating, and, based on player-tracking data from Next Gen Stats used to evaluate every route a pass catcher runs, DeVonta Smith has so far performed as the 14th-best receiver in the entire league.

Additionally, another proof point of DeVonta Smith’s elite efficiency lies in the fact that he is currently ranked 14th in receiving success rate among 2024 WRs (via Pro Football Reference).

Smith not only possesses Justin Jefferson-like quickness in and out of his breaks and sure hands, but he can also leap out of the sky and snag 50/50 balls as well as any receiver in the NFL (regardless of the competition):

DeVonta Smith did this to Patrick Surtain II btw.#FlyEaglesFly #Eagles https://t.co/UPXDUYfpVj pic.twitter.com/vJqFQjXOwE

— ☆𝘏𝘰𝘸𝘪𝘦𝘙𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘎𝘖𝘋☆ (@JalenCarterDPOY) October 3, 2024

In terms of receivers who have played 11 or fewer games like DeVonta Smith has, he ranks fifth in the NFL in catches for 20+ yards.

While Smith is known as an absolute savant of a route-runner and man-beater, his speed and explosiveness have seemingly become increasingly underrated every season. So far he is one of only 15 receivers this season who has at least three catches for 40+ yards.

Although the Eagles’ offense as a whole runs through Saquon Barkley and a terrifyingly-dominant running game that sets everything else up, when the Eagles have had to throw and beat difficult opponents, its clear that getting the ball to the former Heisman trophy winner remains as critical as avoiding Pat’s and Geno’s if you’re looking for one of the best cheesesteaks in Philadelphia.

“We’re not paying our QB 40M to turn and hand the ball off” https://t.co/VqhxiZvAht pic.twitter.com/hLG6AYkFhq

— Vote The Process (@VoteTheProcess) November 4, 2024

Finally, what do the Eagles only losses of the season have in common? DeVonta Smith either didn’t play or had less than 80 receiving yards.

In games this season where Smith has played and/or has had over 80 receiving yards, the Eagles are undefeated.

While Smith cost the Eagles dearly with a wide-open drop in the close loss against the Commanders this week, his top-5 catch percentage among WRs points to that being a complete fluke.

Moreover and once again, in games in which Smith is worked into the offense effectively enough to where he has at least 80 receiving yards (an arguably relatively low bar for a 2024 WR), the Eagles are 4-0 and have outscored their opponents by an average of two possessions (11 points per game) in all four games, so the game rarely comes down to potentially like it did in the three-point loss against the Redskins Commies.

After a loss today against an opponent they might see again in the playoffs snapped Philadelphia’s winning streak, the Eagles just might re-evaluate their offensive approach and air it out a little more for a balanced approach down the stretch of the season – especially considering Saquon already has well over 300 touches so far and it would be catastrophic of the Eagles’ most talented player breaks down towards the latter half of the year.

As the last few weeks have proved, the Eagles will at least occasionally need to throw at a higher clip and have more of a 50/50 approach on offense when it comes to run/pass to beat the toughest competition.

When and if Philly does start passing at a higher and more productive rate, then Smith will likely need targets and yards early and often in order for the Eagles’ passing game to do its part to get another winning streak underway.