NFC Championship Preview: Eagles Looking to Black List Commies From Playoffs

 

 

In terms of both statistics and superstars, this is the most even matchup the Eagles have had all season. Can Jalen Carter and Philadelphia’s defense wreck this game enough to make all of that moot?

Much like last week, considering the Eagles and Commanders match up eye-to-eye across the board, the difference in this game will likely come down to the Eagles’ swarming defense in addition to Philadelphia’s bullying offensive line and elite skill positions overmatching Washington’s, all of which could be the difference in what should be an all-out war for a Superbowl birth.

Both teams have x-factors that are decimating the league, and scrambling the brains of defensive and offensive coordinators.

Jayden Daniels is by most accounts already an undisputed top-5 QB in just his first NFL season, and if the Commanders do win the game it will be due to Daniels’ game-breaking ability.

His combination of speed, vision, break-tackle ability, and arm talent is the best we’ve seen come into the league probably since Lamar Jackson, and the scariest part is Daniels might already be a more adept passer.

Daniels leads the NFL in passing yards in the playoffs in addition to QBR, is tied for first in passing TDs, and ranks second in pass YPG to only Jared Goof.

Jalen Hurts meanwhile ranks last in pass YPG in the playoffs, but his decision making and rushing ability more than offset that apparent lack of passing production, and that passing yardage becomes less alarming when you consider the fact that his low YPG is at least partially due the Eagles just absolutely running the tits out of the football with Saquon Barkley.

Eagles are right where they should be

— Vote The Process (@votetheprocess.bsky.social) 2024-12-17T16:40:42.986Z

On the other side, the story of the Eagles season has really been the addition of Saquon, and the combination of maybe the best running back in the league (at least by statistical accounts) running behind the most-skilled offensive line in the league.

We all know Barkley led the league in rushing during the regular season, and thus far this postseason he and the Eagles dominant, athletic offensive line picked up right where they left off.

Saquon leads postseason rushers in rushing yards and rushing yards per game with 162 YPG (Derrick Henry is second with 135), is tied for the league lead in carries for 20+ yards, tied for second in rushing touchdowns, and sits at third in rushes resulting in first downs (according to ESPN).

#Eagles / #Cowboys slaughter #highlights in under 1 minute 📺

— Vote The Process (@votetheprocess.bsky.social) 2024-12-29T23:30:54.373Z

Jalen Hurts has 106 postseason rushing yards of his own so far, which leads QBs as he’s been expertly knifing through defenses all year (he also led the league in yards per scramble attempt according to Pro Football Reference during the regular season).

His 8.2 yards per carry through two games also ranks second to only Bo Nix among quarterbacks.

In terms of the TE position across both teams, while Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert are both among the upper echelon of talent, no YAC Zach isn’t nearly as efficient with his looks in terms of creating additional yardage, and he’s not nearly as adept of a blocker.

Right now Goedert leads all TEs in postseason YAC, and he ranks 6th in YAC yardage among all players regardless of position (per ESPN). As an example of Goedert’s efficiency as a blocker as well, which I think even Washington fans would agree beats Ertz’ by a mile, check out this stat:

#Eagles run game this season with Dallas Goedert (EPA/rush): .163 (1st in the #NFL by a mile)Without: .057

— Vote The Process (@votetheprocess.bsky.social) 2025-01-16T20:11:19.704Z

As far as defensive playmakers go, both teams boast them in spades. Both the Eagles and Commanders have two of the top five leading tacklers in the playoffs.

For the Commanders, linebacker Jeremy Chinn leads playoff defenders in total tackles while Bobby Wagner is having an absolutely resurgent year and ranks third with 16 tackles.

Philadelphia meanwhile has maybe the most physical defensive back currently still in the playoffs as Reed Blankenship’s 16 tackles rank second to only the aforementioned crimson Chinn.

And Birds fans need no selling when it comes to Zach Baun’s elite play, underrated speed, and top-10 awareness as the heart of Philly’s defense ranks tied for fifth in playoff tackles with 14.

When it comes to the defensive line, the Eagles likely have a significant edge which should make all the difference in the world, as we’ve seen during the Eagles’ past playoff success.

Last week’s game-sealing Stafford sack, among others, highlighted the ferocity of Nolan Smith Jr. and Jalen Carter, and it is those two rushers who should create enough problems for Daniels and the Commanders offense for the Eagles to come away with the win.

Eagles/Rams #highlights for those who missed it… or anyone who just wanted to watch Jared Verse chase the back of Saquon's jersey again#GoBirds #FlyEaglesFly

— Vote The Process (@votetheprocess.bsky.social) 2025-01-20T00:06:42.021Z

Right now, Smith and Carter rank amongst the top-10 defenders in playoff sack yards, TFLs, and total sacks as both have at least two sacks a piece for nearly half a football field in negative yardage against opposing offenses (combined for -40 yards).

In addition to the defensive line, the Eagles likely have a significant advantage when it comes to locking down and frustrating dynamic receivers like Terry McLaurin as Philadelphia has five defenders with at least two passes defended (forced incompletions) while the Commanders only have one with as many so far throughout the playoffs (as reported by ESPN).

One final (potentially) interesting player spotlight stat, Zane Gonzalez, who was added midseason, and Jake Elliot, who was maligned by almost the entirety of the national media for regular season misses, are both tied for the league lead in kicking points through two weeks.

Both have kicked for 20 points and have hit at least four field goals a piece.

Team matchup stats (favorable matchup listed first in green)

• Points per game: Commanders (1st) – Eagles (5th)
• Rush yards per game: Eagles (2nd) – Commanders (6th)
• Pass YPG: Commanders (2nd) – Eagles (last)
• YPG allowed: Eagles (9th) – Commanders (10th)
• Points allowed: Eagles (3rd) – Commanders (9th)

As you can tell from how evenly-matched the Eagles and Commanders are in terms of how far apart they are in the statistical categories above in addition to each team leading in at least two each, this will be the hardest-fought battle for the Eagles the entire season.

If you haven't seen Saquon's game-sealing TD with just the crowd noise yet… it goes HARD 😤

— Vote The Process (@votetheprocess.bsky.social) 2025-01-21T13:01:54.549Z

Want one last proof point for this game likely coming down to just a few plays amongst a pool of sweat and anxiety for Eagles fans? Both the Eagles and Commanders lead the NFL playoffs in turnover differential.

Considering how evenly-matched these teams are, Philadelphia fans have to hope that Jalen Hurts is healthy enough to move around even 75% as well as he normally does, and Birds fans should look to the Eagles’ superior defensive line to hopefully create enough havoc to completely take the game over, especially late, like they did against the Rams just a week ago.