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Chip Bayless FEATURED Football Latest 

Divisional Playoff Preview: Eagles Looking to Ram Through Rams

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By Chip Bayless (click Howie for more Chip)

 

 

While both teams are coming off confident wins over opponents many considered as elite during the regular season, the Eagles might have the edge due to better play in the on the edges and in the trenches, and there are a variety of statistics buoying that theory.

The Eagles and Rams are both two of the most talented and well-coached teams in the NFL, and this matchup should be a phenomenal one if not simply due to the superstars and studs on both teams.

On one side you have a Matt Stafford who seemingly refuses to age and is curving footballs around defenders as proficiently and as accurately as he ever has. Stafford is decisive, processes defensive information quickly, and can hit any throw in the playbook.

On the other, you have Jalen Hurts who has gone from second round pick to one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL over the last several seasons. Much like Stafford, Hurts has the accuracy and arm strength to hit any throw in the playbook; however, unlike Stafford, Hurts is one of the most dynamic game-breakers at the position and adds an immense amount of value with his legs.

After all, Hurts did lead the NFL in yards per scramble this season.

Surrounding both quarterbacks are insanely talented offensive playmakers who just need to get the ball in their hands to make a play – they can do the rest.

Stafford has a top-10 running back in Kyren Williams sharing the Rams’ backfield with him, and on the outside he gets to throw to an equally ageless Cooper Kupp, and an emerging superstar and top-10 WR in Puka Nacua.

Meanwhile, Hurts and the Eagles boast two #1 receivers in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, maybe the best offensive line in football, and maybe the best running back in football based on all measurable statistics.

According to ESPN Analytics which uses player-tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats to evaluate every route pass catchers run, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith both performed as two of the top-10 WRs in the entire league (overall score).

It’s worth remembers Saquon led the league in rushing and scrimmage yards this year while ranking among the top-10 RBs in: rushes resulting in first downs, rushing yards per attempt, and rushing TDs (per Pro Football Reference).



While this should be one of the toughest tests the Eagles face all season, the difference will likely come down to the Eagles barely beating the Rams out from a talent perspective in the trenches on offense and defense, at wideout, at running back, and at corner and safety.

Moreover, while the difference in Matthew Stafford and Jalen Hurts’ overall current talent level can be debated, Jalen Hurts’ abilities are arguably more suited for the modern NFL and winning games late in the season with bad weather.

I mentioned before both QBs can hit any throw in the playbook, but the difference is with Hurts the Eagles can hit any play in the playbook. Hurts is elite at read-options, QB boots, and making plays outside of the pocket which forces the Rams defense to defend more of the field than the Eagles defense has to defend due to Stafford’s lack of mobility.

Whether it was the offensive line, health, or Stafford’s lack of plays out of the pocket, the Rams offense was less explosive than the Eagles’ in 2024.

As a for instance, Hurts ranked tied for sixth among this season’s quarterbacks in pass attempts for 40+ yards while Stafford and the Rams ranked tied for 15th and had half as many attempts (according to FantasyPros).

Additionally, Hurts ranked 11th in TD% during the 2024 regular season while Stafford ranked all the way down at 29th. Hurts also finished inside the top-10 in both yards per attempt and yards per completion while Stafford ranked outside of the top-13 QBs in both categories (per Pro Football Reference).

One final efficiency difference between Hurts and Stafford this year which could be the difference if the game comes down to a few plays: Hurts ranked sixth in on-target throw percentage while Stafford didn’t even rank among the top-25, as reported by Pro Football Reference.

The Eagles also have virtually all of their offensive pieces healthy who are key to the explosiveness and efficiency that could be the difference in this contest, especially if possessions are limited due to heavy snow or high wind.

Likewise, while Nacua and Kupp are elite receivers, neither one is A.J. Brown when it comes to Brown’s shocking combination of size, strength, speed, ball skills, and his tenacity after the catch, qualities which make him one of the unquestioned top-5 WRs across the league receivers in the NFL.

According to ESPN Analytics which uses player-tracking data from Next Gen Stats to evaluate every route pass catchers run, A.J. Brown didn’t just perform as an unquestioned top-5 WR but as the best receiver in the league in 2024.

Brown also finished 2024 ranked fifth in broken tackles on receptions, tied for 10th in receiving yards after contact, and top-10 in catches for 10+ yards, 20+ yards, and 40+ yards.

Per Next Gen Stats, he also had the fifth-highest average YAC above expectation.

Need one more proof point of A.J. Brown’s insane production despite a lack of targets in comparison to other elite WRs? He finished sixth in yards per target last season.

Then there’s the difference at the running back position. While both Kyren Williams and Saquon Barkley are two of the top-10 backs in the NFL, Saquon likely edges Williams out in terms of an overall talent, efficiency, and production perspective, which could very well be the difference in this game if it comes down to just a couple of plays.

Many non-Eagles fans and detractors point to Saquon’s league-leading carry total in terms of his numbers, but among 2024’s RBs Saquon finished second to only Derrick Henry in efficiency and in rush yards over expected per attempt.

If somehow the Rams defense manages to stop maybe the best running back in the league along with the most efficient receiver in the league in A.J. Brown, that just leaves a former Heisman Trophy winner with one-on-one matchups to exploit for insane catches like this:


One of the most sure-handed WRs, in the league, its important to remember that despite one devasting drop that cost the Eagles a game, among all 2024 WRs DeVonta Smith finished the season with the fourth-highest catch percentage, per Next Gen Stats.

Even if the Rams have the perfect coverage to stop both Brown and Smith along with the perfect run defense, there is just a chance that one of the best players in the NFL could just break every single tackle and go absolutely unconscious and hurdle a defender backwards

Team matchup stats (favorable matchup listed first in green)

  • Scoring %: Eagles (9th) – Rams (16th)
  • Yards per play: Eagles (12th) – Rams (15th)
  • Scoring % allowed: Eagles (3rd-lowest) – Rams (7th-most)
  • Yards per play allowed: Eagles (led the NFL with the fewest) – Rams (7th-most)
  • Point differential: Eagles (2nd) – Rams (18th)
  • Takeaways: Eagles (6th) – Rams (14th)

The Eagles actually beat the Rams out in arguably the majority of the analytics available regardless of site/platform, but the Rams were a vastly different team during the regular season due to their offensive line being injured for about half the season in addition to Nacua, arguably the most talent player on their team, going on IR.

The Rams’ impressive and improved play towards the end of the season combined with their dominant Wild Card win just a week go demonstrates the value Nacua and a fully healthy offensive line brings to the table.

However, considering the Eagles outrank the Rams in scoring % allowed, fewest yards per play allowed, point differential, and takeaways by at least 12 spots in each category, this matchup looks beyond favorable from an Eagles’ standpoint.


If there is a wintry mix on gameday as is predicted at the moment, that will only assist the Eagles in containing the most dangerous part of the Rams attack: Stafford to Nacua.

A slippery surface would also only aid the most dynamic and productive aspect of the Eagles’ offense: Saquon Barkley.

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