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Chip Bayless FEATURED Football Latest 

Eagles Playoff Preview: Sending the Packers Packing

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By Chip Bayless (click Howie for more Chip)

 

 

While most Eagles fans are likely considered with Hurts’ health more than anything else, there’s a bevy of reasons for optimism for Philadelphia from a logical and statistical perspective – even if one of the best QBs in the NFL can’t go

Against the Packers in the first round of the playoffs, what most Eagles fans are likely concerned with is Jalen Hurts’ health (concussion) as he practiced for the first time on Wednesday, and rumors were swirling that the Eagles might not have their QB1 this week.

Although, the Eagles have shown the last few weeks that they can still play at a high level with either of their backup quarterbacks in the game, so even if Hurts doesn’t play Eagles fans still have plenty of reasons to be hopeful.

Even if Hurts can’t suit up, the Eagles have something the Steelers don’t: two receivers better than anyone on Pittsburgh’s roster in Smith and Brown, and one of the best players in the entire league in Saquon Barkley.



A.J. Brown’s startling combination of size, strength, speed, and ball skills combined with his tenacity after the catch makes him one of the best receivers in the NFL.

According to ESPN Analytics which uses player-tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats to evaluate every route pass catchers run, A.J. Brown actually performed as the best receiver in the league in 2024. And it wasn’t even close.

A.J. Brown had the highest receiver score in the NFL with a 99 rating, while no other pass catcher broke the 90 mark (Kittle was 2nd with a score of 88), and no other WR broke the 80 mark.

The problem defenses have found is if that they focus on stopping A.J. Brown, that just means DeVonta Smith, a player who was once voted as a the best player in all of college football, can easily feast on the other slide or from the slot with jaw-dropping catches and touchdowns galore.

While A.J. Brown and Saquon Barkley are the more widely-known names in terms of the Eagles’ offensive success, Smitty has been equally as critical and is one of the most sure-handed WRs in the league and a go-to guy for Hurts and the Eagles in clutch situations time and time again.


Among all 2024 WRs, DeVonta Smith finished the season with the fourth-highest catch percentage, per Next Gen Stats.

Granted, if Jalen Hurts isn’t able to play, the dynamic and playstyle of the Eagles’ offense will need to change considering the Eagles’ backups don’t possess Hurts’ game-breaking ability, and Hurts did lead the NFL in yards per scramble this season.

But the Eagles are well-equipped to handle a situation where they simply need their QB to just distribute the ball to the appropriate playmakers while the defense hunts for turnovers, and due to the insane talent level and efficiency of the Eagles offensive line and Saquon Barkley, there have been plenty of games where that has been all Hurts has needed to do anyways.

Part of the evidence for the potential for a successful Eagles’ gameplan that revolves around just distribution and handoffs lies in the fact that Saquon led the league in rushing and scrimmage yards this year while ranking fourth in rushes resulting in first downs, fifth in rushing yards per attempt, and eighth in rushing TDs (per Pro Football Reference).

For detractors pointing to Saquon’s league-leading carries in terms of his yardage stats, he’s done a ton of his damage after first stiff-arming or juking a defender, as he also finished 2024 ranked fourth in yards after contact.

If defenses stack the box to stop Saquon, that might leave A.J. Brown in one-on-one coverage and he’s proved over and over that that situation is a recipe for disaster for opposing defenses.

Brown’s hulking frame and elite catch radius allows him to body defenders and out-leap opponents to snatch passes at their highest point, which is a skillset that would massively help a potential backup quarterback should Jalen Hurts be unable to play against Green Bay.

Brown finished 2024 ranked fourth in yards per target among WRs, and sixth among all players regardless of position.

Additionally, even if Saquon is successfully stopped, the Eagles could call simple short routes in the flat and over the middle in addition to screen passes just to get the ball in A.J. Brown’s hands, as he’s a feared runner who can throw defenders off his body with ease and he finished fifth among WRs in broken tackles on receptions this season (eighth in the league according to Pro Football Reference).

Team matchup stats (favorable matchup listed first in green)

  • Net yards: Packers (5th) – Eagles (8th)
  • Points per game: Eagles (7th) – Packers (8th)
  • Net yards allowed per game: Eagles (1st) – Packers (6th)
  • Points allowed per game: Eagles (2nd) – Packers (6th)
  • Turnover differential: Packers (5th) – Eagles (8th)

The Eagles and Packers essentially matchup relatively evenly as far as some of the most significant team statistics go, as you can tell from the fact that both teams are somehow top-10 in the NFL in all of the above statistics.

The Packers barely edge the Eagles in net yards per game and turnover differential which could be critical if Hurts can’t go and if the Packers are able to stop Saquon while winning the turnover and consequently time of possession battle.

However, the Eagles barely beat out the Packers in PPG and points allowed per game which at the end of the day is what wins and loses football games, and the Eagles lead the league in fewest net yards allowed per game while the Packers rank just outside of the top-5.


With or without Jalen Hurts, if the Eagles hope to pull this one off it will be due to a complete team performance as the defense will need to keep up its smothering ways while Philadelphia needs to feed Saquon early and often, regardless of his effectiveness.

Because even if Saquon is relatively inefficient, the attention diverted to the run game from a defensive perspective should be more than enough to draw some phenomenal matchups for some of the best receivers currently in the NFL, during a time where the NFL is clearly a passing league.

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