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2024 Fantasy Rankings: WRs 11 – 20

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By Chip Bayless (click Howie for more Chip)

 

 

 

11) Chris Olave

Chris Olave comes in ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr., Mike Evans, and Deebo Samuel for a few reasons.

Mainly, we’ve already seen Olave be dominant in the NFL and know what his talent level can produce while any rookie such as Harrison contains at least some risk until you actually see them produce on the field.

Moreover, the Saints used the Jerry Jones approach when it came to going all-in on improving their skill positions during the offseason, so Olave will still act as the de-facto top pass-catcher in New Orleans, and it shouldn’t even be close (which can’t be said for Evans or Samuel).

It’s clear Olave is the Saints’ most trustworthy pass-catcher and perennial “go-to guy”, as they constantly look his way in one-on-one and third down situations.

Olave is an explosive, agile, smart, and shifty receiver who is without a doubt the top overall playmaker on the Saints aside from Kamara, and there is a chance the WR has already usurped the RB for that role on the Saints offense.

Among last year’s WRs, Olave finished:

  • 20th in fantasy PPG and 16th in PRK (per ESPN)
  • 11th in receptions resulting in 1st downs (per ESPN)
  • 14th in receptions (per ESPN)
  • 17th in receiving yards (per ESPN)
  • 18th in receptions for 20+ yards (per ESPN)
  • 18th in average targeted air yards (per Next Gen Stats)
  • 23rd in YAC (per ESPN)

Target share is as good as oxygen in your lungs in terms of how volume impacts a fantasy WR’s production, and Olave was among the top receivers in the NFL there.



In 2023, Olave ranked 12th in targets among receivers (per ESPN), and accounted for an astounding 37% of all of New Orleans’ air yards, a mark which ranked 12th among all players according to Next Gen Stats.

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He also had 17% of all of the Saints red zone targets, reports Pro Football Reference.

Regardless of who is under center for the 2024 Saints offense or how healthy they are, Olave should score double-digit fantasy points in the vast majority of his contests, and Derek Carr is at minimum an average to above average QB more than capable of getting Olave the ball.

After all, Olave cracked the ten point fantasy barrier in 75% of his games last season.

 

 

12) Marvin Harrison Jr.

Lauded as one of the best WR prospects of all time, we should see a Justin Jefferson or Garrett Wilson-like rookie season where he is flooded with targets both due to his draft status and the complete lack of other weapons available.

At the moment, Arizona’s best pass-catcher from 2023 who is still on the team is tight end Trey McBride.

Marvin Harrison Jr. is widely viewed as a generational talent. His explosiveness off the line of scrimmage, ability to beat press coverage, and ball-tracking ability are probably the best in the 2024 draft class.

There’s a reason Harrison’s skillset and performance awarded him the 2023 Fred Biletnikoff Award (awarded to NCAA’s best WR) and named him a consensus all-American in his final college season.

Harrison is a terrifying deep threat, a demoralizing route-runner, and an absolute technician when it comes down to the finer points of being an NFL receiver that usually takes up-and-coming WRs years to perfect.

In 2023 Harrison was tied for third in receiving touchdowns among college wideouts with a whopping 14, 10th in NCAA receiving yards, and was tied for 15th among all players in total scrimmage TDs with 15 (per College Football Reference).

Kyler Murray has also proven to be one of the most supreme passers in the NFL when healthy, and Arizona wasn’t exactly a stud of a team last season so Harrison should have plenty of games with double-digit targets while the Cardinals throw incessantly to try to dig themselves out of a hole like they’re about to carry Madame Zeroni up the mountain.

 

 

13) Mike Evans

Like delicious and perfectly-breaded chicken tenders at a wedding, Mike Evans is incredibly underrated.

He should be Baker Mayfield’s favorite target again in 2024, and as evidenced by the rest of this list and the top-10 WRs across fantasy platforms, being your team’s top-target is half the battle when it comes to being a must-start fantasy WR.

That role showed up on the stat sheet. Evans was responsible for a crazy 41% of all the Bucs 2023 air yards last season, a figure which ranked seventh in the NFL – as reported by Next Gen Stats. He also ranked seventh in average targeted air yards (also per Next Gen Stats).

If you think Evans is slowing down or has lost some of his vertical leap, check out this crazy grab against the Eagles from last season:

Due to his age and the plethora of other talented WRs in the NFL at the moment, let me let Evan’s 2023 WR rankings speak for themselves first:

  • 11th in fantasy points and 7th in PRK
  • Tied for 1st in receiving TDs with only Tyreek Hill (per ESPN)
  • 9th in receiving yards (per ESPN)
  • 10th in yards per catch (per ESPN)
  • 12th in catches for 20+ yards (per ESPN)
  • 16th in targets (per ESPN)
  • 18th in receptions (per ESPN)

It’s clear Evans is still one of the top go-to guys in the entire league and can be counted on to move the chains in tough spots. Among all players, Evans ranked 14th last year in receptions resulting in first downs (per ESPN).

Evans is also still a deep threat due to deceptive acceleration, elite ball skills, and outstanding leaping ability combined with a massive frame. Combine that with his strength and ability to bully defenders, and you’ve got one of the most elite receivers the NFL has seen over the past decade.

For those who think Evans’ might no longer be playing like his size or his strength could be feigning, see this play where he straight up wills his way into the endzone despite multiple defenders clinging on for dear life:

The Buccaneers are still treating him as such as evidenced by his 19th-highest ADOT in 2023, which likely means him tying Tyreek for TDs wasn’t necessarily so fluky that Evans should be expected for a significant TD reduction.

If you believe Evans is destined for a massive touchdown reduction due to some luck in 2023, you might want to check out Evans’ red zone target share which stood at 23% last season, ranking 21st among receivers.

Finally, the Bucs were far from an offensive disaster last season, and they threw the 10th-most touchdowns of any offense in 2023 while also ranking 10th in passer rating. They also had the seventh-most pass plays of 20 yards or more, according to NFL.com.

 

 

14) Deebo Samuel Sr.

Akin to Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel is underrated every single season and usually outperforms his ADP.

Despite CMC, Aiyuk, and Kittle, Samuel is clearly one of the most important aspects of the San Fran offense, and he is arguably the most important cog in the machine outside of CMC.


If you saw the show Receiver on Netflix, you know without a shadow of a doubt that Deebo is viewed by the entire 49ers organization as an elite playmaker that can score at anytime, and he has the ability to bail out terrible offensive drives by taking a screen pass or an end-around the full length of the field.

This is in large part due to Deebo putting fear in defenders’ hearts like he is the actual Deebo from the movie Friday with NFL receiver speed.

In the face of missing two weeks, Deebo Samuel still ranked (among 2023 WRs):

The 49ers are well-aware of Samuel’s scoring potential, and as a result they rewarded him with the 18th-highest red zone target share of any receiver in 2023, a stat that also ranked 20th among all players as Deebo accounted for 24% of all of San Francisco’s red zone looks (according to Pro Football Reference).

That faith paid massive dividends with Deebo Samuel finishing with the fourth-most combined rushing and receiving TDs of any receiver. His 11 scrimmage TDs were tied for 11th among all players no matter the position, as reported by Pro Football Reference.

Deebo’s phenomenal explosiveness and playmaking ability resulted in off-the-charts efficiency last season as the WR ranked 10th among all NFL players in yards per targets (reports Pro Football Reference).

He was also 13th in passer rating when targeted among receivers, and 21st among all players.

The final point bolstering Samuel’s fantasy stock lies in the fact that he is one of the top targets in one of the best (if not the best) offense in the NFL.

In 2023 the 49ers were 1st in yards per pass attempts, second in passing touchdowns, third in points per game, fourth in passing yards per game, third in completion percentage, and 1st in passer rating.

 

 

15) DeVonta Smith

Smith comes in just ahead of D.K. Metcalf and Michael Pittman in large part due to the fact that he plays in a much better offense with a quarterback who is a proven commodity.

Smith’s suddenness in and out of his routes, hands, and body control on sideline catches truly rivals Justin Jefferson, as Smith is one of the best chain-movers in the league in one-on-one situations.

Moreover, critical like adding bananas and chocolate chips to your pancake mix, an absolutely critical factor in any fantasy player being successful is them being in the huddle to begin with, and DeVonta Smith led all receivers in average snap share last season.

A former Heisman winner, Smith also possesses the vision, breakaway speed, and creativeness to turn any target into a potential touchdown.

He ranked, among receivers last season:

  • 21st in fantasy PPG and 19th in PRK (per ESPN)
  • Tied for 13th in receiving TDs (per ESPN)
  • 16th in receptions (per ESPN)
  • 18th in yards per target (per Pro Football Reference)
  • 20th in receiving yards (per ESPN)
  • 20th in passer rating when targeted (per Pro Football Reference)
  • 23rd in targets (per ESPN)
  • Tied for 23rd in catches for 20+ yards (per ESPN)

With a phenomenal offensive line that gives Jalen Hurts time, a stud running back in Saquon Barkley, and a fellow elite WR on the opposite side in AJ Brown, it is simply impossible for defenses to focus on stopping the nimble Smith.

This leaves DeVonta with plenty of single-coverage opportunities against the opposing team’s second-best corner as A.J. Brown is usually shadowed by the CB1, allowing ample opportunities for the speedy youngster to dance around defenders in space or make spectacular leaping grabs while seemingly stealing the ball from the sky with his elite hands.

Those hands are as consistent as any in the league, and Smith ranked 9th in catch percentage in regards to last year’s crop of WRs.

The attention A.J. Brown gets actually translates into more targets for DeVonta Smith as crazy as that sounds, as the Alabama product accounted for almost a third (30%) of all of the Eagles 2023 air yards.

As long as the former Heisman trophy winner stays healthy, his 30% target share will yield borderline WR1 results once again in an offense that was fifth in scoring percentage and seventh in total scrimmage plays with a core in their prime.

Maybe then Smith could receive the same honor as a fictional movie character and have a statue erected in his honor at a landmark location in the city of Philadelphia.

 

 

16) DK Metcalf

Metcalf is the closest thing to Calvin Johnson we have seen since the last time Georgia Tech was mentioned in 2007.

If a coach could draw their ideal receiver on a board and describe every aspect of their skillset, that player would end up being D.K. Metcalf.

Metcalf has the hulking frame and strength to make any contested catch in traffic while striking terror in defenders as a YAC maven. He’s also one of the most agile and speedy players on this entire list and truly runs like a track star.

In fact, he was clocked as the fastest ball-carrier in the entire league last season, as reported by Next Gen Stats. He was also 14th in average targeted air yards.

In terms of last year’s WRs, Metcalf’s other significant rankings were:

  • 23rd in fantasy PPG & 21st in PRK (per ESPN)
  • Tied for 7th in receiving TDs (per ESPN)
  • Tied for 13th in catches for 20+ yards (per ESPN)
  • 18th in yards (per ESPN)
  • 18th in catches for 1st downs (per ESPN)
  • 20th in YAC (per ESPN)
  • 22nd in targets (per ESPN)

Metcalf’s ability to glide away from and bulldoze any defender is uncanny for the position, as is his ability to rip opponents off his body which shoots the efficiency of his targets through the roof as evidenced by him having the fifth-highest average yards per catch in the NFL last season (according to ESPN).

Conversely, he had the 11th-most broken tackles on receptions of any WR (reported by Pro Football Reference).

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♬ original sound – Sports Betting Intel

Additionally, Metcalf notched the eighth-highest average YAC above expectation while coming in 13th in YAC per reception (reports Next Gen Stats).

The Seahawks rewarded last season’s fastest ball-carrier early and often in games, and Metcalf finished with the ninth-highest share of his team’s air yards among all players as he accounted for a staggering 38% of all the Seahawks’ 2023 air yards.

Metcalf’s hulking size and blazing speed creates a massive scoring potential for all of his looks, and makes him an ideal red zone target as well.

His fantasy prospects are shot into the stratosphere when you factor in his red zone workload considering Metcalf had the sixth-highest red zone target share in the NFL in 2023 with 35% of Seattle red zone balls flying his way.

 

 

17) Brandon Aiyuk

Aiyuk would be ranked higher here it wasn’t for trade rumors and offseason drama swirling like Trump’s toupee in the breeze, but much like Mike Evans his 2023 stats are so eye-popping that those need to speak their appropriate volumes first.

In terms of 2023 WRs, Aiyuk managed these impressive marks:

  • 17th in fantasy PPG and 14th in total points (per ESPN)
  • 2nd in yards per reception (per ESPN)
  • 2nd in 20+ yard catches to only Tyreek and CeeDee (per ESPN)
  • 7th in receiving yards (per ESPN)
  • 8th in receptions resulting in 1st downs (per ESPN)
  • 17th in YAC (per ESPN)
  • 24th in receptions (per ESPN)

While Deebo Samuel is the do-it-all jackknife that along with CMC essentially runs the 49ers’ offense, Aiyuk plays the critical role of the go-to receiver and man coverage-beater.

If you watch San Fran games, you know just how critical Aiyuk’s contributions are. Moreover, he’s seemingly improved and lived up to his fantasy hype every season of his career.

Its unlikely that 2024 will be any different considering all of the main elements of the 49ers core roster and coaches are all returning, and they are all as healthy as ever.

Accordingly, teams simply can’t focus on stopping Aiyuk (who went for the seventh-most receiving yards) because if they do then they’ll get burned by CMC, Deebo, or Kittle.

While Aiyuk wasn’t even in the top 25 WRs in terms of targets, he still turned what few looks he received into phenomenal value and managed to end the season with the second-most catches for 20 yards or more, and he still finished with the 12th-highest average targeted air yards (according to Next Gen Stats).

While Aiyuk’s total targets ranked outside the top 25, he did still account for 37.6% of all of San Francisco’s 2023 air yards which did rank 11th-best in the league.

Aiyuk’s leaping and ball-tracking ability also helps him reel in an insane amount of the targets he does receive. In terms of last year’s wideouts, Aiyuk was 11th in catch percentage (as reported by Next Gen Stats).

He was also 12th in average YAC above expected.

Once again and like Deebo, Aiyuk plays in possibly the best offense in the entire league so he’ll have plenty of scoring opportunities and scrimmage plays.

The 49ers led the NFL in points scored per drive, net yards per drive, red zone scoring percentage, and completed air yards per pass attempt (per Pro Football Reference) in 2023.

San Francisco was also second in air yards per completion, third in third down conversion %, and had the fifth-fewest QB pressures allowed.

If Aiyuk does indeed report to the 49ers facility in time for the start of the season, it would be shocking if he was not among the top 20 fantasy WRs in both PRK and fantasy PPG.

 

 

18) Michael Pittman

Pittman is scheduled to be the Colts’ top wideout again in 2023 as long as Josh Downs doesn’t miraculously make the most impressive second-year jump of anyone in his draft class.

After all, Pittman was responsible for 30% of all the Colts air yards just last season.

And for the first time, Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor are both expected to be fully healthy coming into the season, balancing out the offense, helping with chemistry, and preventing defenses from keying on the Colts’ passing game.


Pittman’s talent level is obvious to even the most casual of observers, and its clear he’s the Colts top playmaker outside of JT. Last season, Pittman had the seventh-highest average yards per touch of any player – according to Pro Football Reference.

When it came to last season’s receivers, Michael Pittman ranked:

  • 15th in fantasy PPG and 13th in total points (per ESPN)
  • 4th in receptions (per ESPN)
  • 4th in snap % (per FantasyPros)
  • 9th in targets (per ESPN)
  • 9th in red zone target % (per Pro Football Reference)
  • 10th in YAC (per ESPN)
  • 14th in yards (per ESPN)
  • Tied for 15th in receptions resulting in 1st downs (per ESPN)

Pittman is a massive, quick receiver and essentially plays like a slightly smaller version of A.J. Brown or D.K. Metcalf.

He uses his size expertly to box out defenders, and he’s one of the best in the league at using his long arms to climb the ladder and reel in footballs at their highest point.

The only concerning aspect of Pittman’s 2023 season was the fact that for someone who was top-10 in both targets and receptions, he had very few big plays or touchdowns.

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While he had the fourth-most targets last year, he didn’t even rank in the top-40 when it came down to TDs and catches for 20 yards or more. His average depth of target (ADOT) was also outside of the top-100 players.

Although some of the lack of explosive plays and touchdowns can be attributed to playing without his starting quarterback for basically the entire season, some of that might be inevitable due to the Colts’ rushing attack of Jonathan Taylor and Anthony Richardson, how the offense is structured in general, and Jim Irsay’s BAC.

 

 

19) D.J. Moore

Chicago Bears wide receiver DJ Moore (2) catches a pass and runs for a first down in the third quarter during a game between the Chicago Bears and Atlanta Falcons at Soldier Field on Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023, in Chicago. The Bears won 37-17. (Stacey Wescott/Chicago Tribune)

Moore and Keenan Allen are somewhat interchangeable here considering just how insane Allen’s 2023 stats were, but Moore comes in one slot ahead of him simply because of his familiarity with the offense and the team, and because the Bears just rewarded Moore with a massive contract.

It’s rare a team trades for and then pays a player a mountain of cash just to not use them. That usage rears its head in the analytics department, and Moore had one of the highest target shares in the entire NFL last year and accounted for 41.5% of all the Bears air yards (sixth-best in the NFL).

Moore plays like just a slightly slower (but still incredibly fast) Tyreek Hill that doesn’t beat his kids as Moore is an absolutely tenacious runner after the catch (15th in YAC per reception and 10th in yards per target) can burn the best defenders in the league, and consistently holds onto tough balls in traffic.

Moore’s 2023 WR rankings were:

  • 9th in fantasy PPG and 6th in PRK (per ESPN)
  • Tied for 4th in receptions for 20+ yards (per ESPN)
  • 6th in yards (per ESPN)
  • 6th in receptions for 1st downs (per ESPN)
  • Tied for 7th in receiving TDs (per ESPN)
  • 8th in YAC (per ESPN)
  • 10th in receiving success % (per Pro Football Reference)
  • 12th in receptions (per ESPN)
  • 15th in targets (per ESPN)

DJ Moore also essentially had Uncle Rico for a quarterback last season, but in 2024 he’ll get to work with Caleb Williams under center.

This will be a vastly different Bears offense with a much higher passing volume due to Caleb Williams widely being hailed as possibly the greatest quarterback prospect of all time, and at the very least a generational talent.

He should help Caleb Williams with Williams looking for the Bears top target from 2023 early and often in the face of the fact that Moore had 19th-highest WR passer rating when targeted last year (reports Pro Football Reference).

Moore also has as many opportunities as anyone in the NFL to score fantasy points because his versatility, talent, and blocking ability keeps him on the field for almost every offensive snap (fourth in total snaps among 2023 WRs).

19.6% of all Bears’ red zone targets whizzed Moore’s way last year as well (according to Pro Football Reference).

Coincidentally, he’ll also now have two #1 WRs in the huddle with him in Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze so opposing defenses can no longer focus on Moore as the team’s undisputed (and seemingly only) best offensive weapon.

Moore is also one of the most dependable targets in the NFL, ranking 13th in catch percentage in 2023, as reported by Next Gen Stats.

Looking for one more D.J. Moore stat to blindly force you into drafting him? He was 10th in broken tackles on receptions among 2024 WRs (per Pro Football Reference).

 

 

20) Keenan Allen

Last year’s WR8 (and WR3 in PPG) finds himself all the way down at #20 this season as a result of his age, working with an (albeit talented) rookie quarterback, and now has to compete with DJ Moore and Rome Odunze for targets, both of which could crack the top-20 WRs in fantasy points in their own right.

With D’Andre Swift and Cole Kmet also competing for targets, this Bears offense might just have too many mouths to feed for all of those players to achieve their projected 2024 fantasy production.

Although one of those players certainly could be Keenan Allen due to his age and possibly slipping talent level, I would argue it’s much more probable that a different Bear busts.

This comes down to the fact that teams rarely trade for an elite skill player without planning to seriously integrate them into the offense, and the fact that Keenan Allen’s 2023 statistics stack right up with the very best receivers in the league.

Last season, Keenan Allen finished (among receivers):

  • 3rd in fantasy PPG and 8th in PRK (per ESPN)
  • 5th in receptions (per ESPN)
  • 10th in targets (per ESPN)
  • 11th in receiving yards (per ESPN)
  • 11th in snap % (per Next Gen Stats)
  • 12th in 1st down catches (per ESPN)
  • 12th in receiving success rate (per Pro Football Reference)
  • 13th in catches for 20+ yards (per ESPN)

Allen’s best traits are without a doubt his unbelievably sharp route-running, and his spectacularly strong hands (10th in WR catch % last year).

Although Keenan Allen’s detractors would likely say he simply has to be slowing down or at least close to falling off a cliff, Allen was actually fifth in yards per touch among all players last year – according to Pro Football Reference.

The names he trailed? Not exactly your fellow geriatric cliff jumpers.

They are Tyreek Hill, Puka Nacua, CeeDee Lamb, and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Finally, Keenan Allen was also 12th in YAC last year (per ESPN), so it doesn’t appear on the surface that he’s an aging veteran who will go from being an undisputed fantasy WR1 to being a WR3/flex overnight (which seems to be a prevailing theory).

 

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