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Chip Bayless FEATURED Football Latest 

Top Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 1

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By Chip Bayless (click Howie for more Chip)

 

 

 

 

1) Michael Penix Jr.

Michael Penix coming out of college impressed scouts with his pure arm strength, accuracy, and ability to drive his throws into tight coverage.

Personally, I felt like at the time the last time I saw a QB straight up hit their moving receivers with the football like that was Patrick Mahomes, but I know that’s a stretch.

Regardless of biases personal or otherwise, the facts are that Penix plays in a high-volume offense, gets to throw to three different former top-15 NFL draft picks (when you consider dump-offs to Bijan), and adds some value on the ground with his legs.

Those are usually the components of an elite fantasy quarterback.

In Week 1, Penix scored the 9th-most fantasy points among QBs, outscoring confirmed elite, highly-drafted fantasy players in Baker Mayfield and Jayden Daniels (and scored a half point less than Jalen Hurts).

The Falcons’ signal caller also ranked third in passes for first downs (16), threw for the fourth-most yards, completed the fifth-most passes, had the seventh-best QBR, and finished eighth in passing success rate in terms of Week 1 QBs.

Finally, Penix is also showing incredible decisiveness and is currently averaging the seventh-quickest time to throw (per Next Gen Stats)

The Falcons’ franchise QB will be a high-ceiling QB1 due to his combination of volume and talent ROS barring injury, and today he is available in around 80% of ESPN leagues.

 

 

2) Quentin Johnston

Johnston was a first round draft pick just two seasons ago for a reason, and now finally in a seemingly past-first offense he should have every opportunity in the world to prove his draft stock correct.

Johnston has sneaky acceleration, is a huge target with an equally huge (although inconsistent) catch radius, and has strong contact balance as he’s able to shake off defenders and power through defensive backs at will.

And while Keenan Allen certainly had a big day in his return to the Chargers, it is clearly Quentin Johnston who lines up as the Chargers’ second receiver. Johnston played 82% of snaps (53 plays), close to Ladd’s team-leading 85% snap share, while Allen only played on 62% of snaps (40 plays).

In Week 1, Johnston ranked (among WRs):

He also ranked seventh in red zone target share, so maybe scoring twice on five catches was no accident. Johnston also was tied for sixth in catches for 20+ yards and ranked 21st in average yards per touch among WRs.

Available in 96% of leagues, Johnston should be picked up immediately as his snap share, YAC skills, and fantasy production appears indicative of a solid WR2 with legitimate WR1 upside.

His volume isn’t bad either, as in Week 1 Johnston was 14th in average intended air yards and accounted for over a quarter (28%) of all of the Chargers air yards.

He didn’t have any drops either, and ranked 15th in terms of WR catch percentage.

It will be interesting to see if Charger WR snap shares are similar in Week 2, because if so then Johnston will be a virtual lineup lock in 12-team or larger leagues.

Looking for one final mouth-watering Quentin efficiency stat to convince yourself you not only need to pick him up but start him immediately?

He ranked fifth among WRs in passer rating when targeted and eighth among all players, with an average 148 passer rating on balls that sailed his way while also ranking ninth in average YAC above expectation, according to Next Gen Stats.

 

 

3) Calvin Austin III

Like pre-rolls at a wedding, Aaron Rodgers’ top receivers will be invaluable if indeed the AARP cardholder is back.

While many targeted DK Metcalf as that player, Calvin Austin III is keeping up with the former Seahawk who feels twice his size.

Although it is just one week, statistically Austin might be Rodgers’ favorite target as Austin ranked third in the NFL in Week 1 in his share of his team’s air yards, trailing only JSN and Malik Nabers while accounting for a whopping 66% of all of the Steelers air yards.

Calvin Austin III is an undersized speedster, but a sharp route runner with natural hands who is elite with his ball-tracking and adjusting his speed and body based on placement.

In Week 1, Austin also ranked 16th in fantasy points among WRs, tied for 10th in yards per catch, 18th in receiving yards, and 30th in YAC.

His efficiency was impressive and likely unexpected too, and today he also ranks, in terms of receivers:

One final note in terms of Austin’s role: he played 80% of snaps in Week 1 and was the only Steelers WR aside from Metcalf who even played more than 18% of snaps.

Between Jonnu Smith, Metcalf, and Austin, Rodgers does look to be spreading the ball around so it remains to be seen how consistent Austin’s performance will be, but for now the diminutive wideout available in 97% of leagues can be slotted in as a tentative flex into lineups with high-end WR2 upside.

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