Top Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 2
1) Isaiah Likely
In fantasy football, you either have a dominant TE that you never question taking out of your lineup, or you you’re starting a tight end who wasn’t even rostered in Week 1. There is no in between.
If you fall in the latter category, Likely will likely be your number one waiver claim in the first week of 2024.
He scored an insane 26 fantasy points in Week 1, easily leading all tight ends and sending Mark Andrews owners to the gulag. Likely could have easily scored over 30 points, as we all know he missed out on a second receiving TD thanks to Rex Ryan’s favorite appendages.
TOUCHDOWN OMG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Tune in on NBC! pic.twitter.com/wBV678H6yw
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) September 6, 2024
Likely also easily led all Ravens in receiving yards with 111, more than double the receiving yardage of any other Baltimore pass catcher. Rashod Bateman was second with a mere 53 on two catches.
Impressively enough, 71 of Likely’s receiving yards came after the catch which led Week 1 TEs and ranked fifth in terms of all players. In terms of YAC per reception, Likely led TEs and ranked 10th among all positions across the league (per Next Gen Stats).
Likely ranked seventh in YAC above expectation and led TEs in that category as well in the NFL’s first week of the regular season.
Likely also led Baltimore in receptions with nine, and finished second in yards per catch to only Bateman (and Likely would have led in that category as well had Bateman not barely hauled in a ridiculous catch on the Ravens final drive of the game).
The most important thing we took away from the Ravens game though was that the Mark Andrews days are over as far as being the Ravens undisputed TE1.
Likely at this point in his career is the more explosive and dynamic player, and it is obvious the Ravens know it and will target him as much, if not the most, of any player in their offense.
His long touchdown catch was one of the most athletic plays I’ve ever seen from a tight end, as he came back to the football, juked out some defensive backs and sped down the sideline while stopping on a dime right before the end zone to let a defender fly by like he just faked a three-point shot.
LIKELY A TOUCHDOWN❗❗❗❗@DaGorilla4 | Tune in on NBC! pic.twitter.com/LJ1DdZjpYf
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) September 6, 2024
He also made no mistakes in the blocking or passing game that were noticeable to the naked eye (fourth-highest catch % among TEs), coming out of the game with no drops and some impressive blocks in the run game.
His route running has also improved markedly since his rookie season, and Likely had the fourth-highest average separation in the NFL in Week 1 (according to Next Gen Stats).
Likely managed these impressive marks in terms of Week 1 tight ends:
- 1st in fantasy points
- 1st in receptions
- 1st in yards
- 1st in targets
- 1st in receptions for 1st downs (per ESPN)
- 7th in yards per catch (per ESPN)
Finally, the Ravens willingly split Likely out wide or in the slot in passing situations and view him as one of their top two pass catchers in general, if not their top receiver.
As long as Likely continues to function as the number one tight end in this high-scoring Ravens offense with Lamar Jackson for a QB, he will be a lock-it-in TE1 as far as fantasy football is concerned.
Plus, he’s rostered in just 9.7% of ESPN leagues currently, so there’s about a 90% chance he’s available for you to add this week.
Looking for one final stat for your confirmation bias to pick up and start Isiah Likely in Week 2? He was responsible for 39% of the Ravens air yards in Week 1, a stat that ranked second among TEs to just the Cardinals’ Trey McBride.
2) Justice Hill
Justice Hill surprised Ravens fans and fantasy owners alike with the amount of work he got in Derrick Henry’s debut.
One might venture to say the Ravens would have won that game if they gave Henry more than 13 carries, but I digress.
Justice Hill’s Week 1 workload makes him a must-add in all PPR leagues due to running back scarcity once you get past the RB2s. If he keeps scoring around ten points or more each week, he’ll even be a FLEX play in 12-team PPR leagues.
Hill finished with only one carry for three yards, but was targeted eight times in the passing game, hauling in six balls for 52 yards.
His six catches were tied for second to only Isiah Likely in terms of Ravens pass catchers, and his 52 receiving yards were third to only Likely and Bateman. And its worth noting Bateman only beat Hill out for the second-most receiving yards by one yard and due to a late deep catch that he Bateman barely reeled in.
As insane as this sounds, Justice Hill out-snapped Derrick Henry in Baltimore’s first game, 43 to 37.
Although some of Justice Hill’s volume was due to facing Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in addition to the Ravens trailing by ten points in the fourth quarter, it is clear that Justice Hill is the Ravens undisputed receiving and two-minute drill back.
Hill has trustworthy hands and is an underrated pass-protector. Here he is blocking the Chiefs’ best defensive lineman, Chris Jones:
@nfl held up 1-on-1 with #chrisjones 😤 #justicehill #baltimore #ravens #nfl #nflkickoff @Baltimore Ravens
That role in and of itself makes players fantasy relevant, especially if they play with a quarterback as good as Lamar Jackson and in an offense that is as elite as the Baltimore Ravens.
Hill’s prospects are buoyed by the Ravens’ offensive scheme considering screens, wheel routes, and check downs as seemingly comprised at least a third of Baltimore offensive plays.
For example, in the first half of the contest against the Chiefs, the average Depth of target for the Ravens was barely over one yard (per the NBC Sports broadcast).
Overall, Hill also looked spry and decisive with the touches he did receive.
He ran tenaciously and caught the ball exceptionally well. Hill didn’t drop any balls or make any obvious mistakes, and he turns up-field after the catch as quick as any player in the NFL.
In terms of 2024’s Week 1 RBs, Justice Hill was:
- 1st in targets
- Tied for 2nd in receptions to only De’Von Achane
- Tied for 3rd in receiving yards
- 3rd in receptions resulting in 1st downs (per ESPN)
- 3rd in YAC (9th among all players, per ESPN)
- 16th in YAC per reception (per Pro Football Reference)
Moreover, Hill currently ranks second in terms of RBs in yards per touch (10th among all positions).
The Ravens went to Hill in some critical situations too, showing key trust in the supposed back up to Derrick Henry (again, worth mentioning Hill got more snaps than Henry). Hill was responsible for 28% of all the Ravens red zone targets (per Pro Football Reference).
Hill picked up a nice first down at one point when it looked like Lamar made a bad decision to complete the ball far short of the sticks, but Hill saved the play by turning up-field in the blink of an eye and accelerating past a defender while tiptoeing the sideline for extra yardage to clearly get the first down:
Hill looked like Lamar’s second-most dependable target after Zay Flowers due to how much the Ravens used the screen game combined with short routes and dump-offs.
Hill easily could have scored closer to 20 points than the 11 he finished with, as he missed out on a sure TD when Lamar targeted him right at the goal line only for it to be barely knocked away by a linebacker who never even saw the route, but was lucky enough to jump at the right time and read Lamar’s eyes.
If you own Derrick Henry you absolutely need to roster Justice Hill, and he’s worth a claim in all 12 team leagues due to the scarcity of RBs.
Available in 97% of ESPN fantasy leagues, Hill is at least worth a claim this week and is probably available on your waiver wire.
3) Greg Dortch
Ah yes, Greg Dortch leading the Cardinals in catches and receiving yards in Week 1 was exactly what all the experts had on their 2024 bingo card.
Right along with a convicted felon and Epstein friend who staged a political coup being one of the United States’ top presidential candidates.
Dortch’s detractors will point to his diminutive size, but he more than makes up for that with perhaps the sharpest route-running skills on the Cardinals, and his agility and creativeness with the ball in his hands.
It is evident that the Cardinals are well-aware of Dortch’s playmaking ability, as in addition to leading their passing game they also made sure to get him a rush attempt and a punt return.
The national media might not know it yet, but Arizona at the very least views Greg Dortch as a talented and critical cog in their offense who they believe has a chance to score on every touch, as evidenced by the fact that he currently has the ninth-highest yards per touch in terms of 2024 WRs, and his 7.3 yards per touch average ranks 13th-best among all players (per Pro Football Reference).
As of Week 1, Greg Dortch currently averages more yards per touch than De’Von Achane, Stefon Diggs, Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, Zay Flowers, and Jahmyr Gibbs to name a few explosive playmakers.
On Sunday Dortch finished the game with six grabs on eight targets and added one carry for a total of 51 scrimmage yards.
He led Cardinals receivers and tight ends in catches and receiving yards. His eight targets were second to only Trey McBride too, and his 7.8 yards per reception was good for third best on the team.
Eyes on em pic.twitter.com/0ll7ZBEh2a
— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) September 10, 2024
He also accounted for a quarter of all the Cardinals’ red zone targets.
Among Week 1 WRs, Greg Dortch ranked:
- Tied for 7th in receptions
- Tied for 8th in receptions for 1st downs (per ESPN)
- Tied for 12th in targets
- 26th in YAC
- 35th in receiving yards
Granted, Marvin Harrison Jr. will certainly be more involved in the offense going forward (only four receiving yards on Sunday), and that will eat into Dortch’s share.
However, at the moment Dortch looks to clearly have the most chemistry with Kyler Murray of any Cardinals pass catcher and seemingly always makes good on his opportunities.
Even if Dortch ends up being the Cardinals’ third-most productive receiver after Trey McBride and Marvin Harrision Jr. by the end of the season, that will still be a fantasy-relevant role especially if either one of his fellow Cardinals misses time.
If Dortch keeps finishing games consistently with 5-8 targets, he’ll be worthy of FLEX/WR3 consideration in all 12-team or deeper PPR leagues.
After all, at the moment Dortch is responsible for 32% of all of Arizona’s 2024 air yards.
Dortch keep on dortchin