Super Bowl LIX Preview: Can Eagles and Saquon Cap Historic Season?

While most statistics clearly favor Philadelphia, the Chiefs have shown all season that their stats don’t matter as long as Patrick Mahomes is healthy. Can the Eagles’ ferocious defensive line make Mahomes uncomfortable enough for the Eagles to get their revenge against the Chiefs, cap off Saquon’s historic season the right way, and silence the Hurts haters?

While the Eagles have the apparent mismatch across the board when it comes to almost every position and statistic except for maybe Patrick Mahomes, Chris Jones, Travis Kelce, Roger Goodell, and the refs (Taylor Swift conspiracy/illuminati), Philly will need to play nearly flawless football to come out with the win because Kansas City has proved every season of Mahomes’ career that they will find a way to win if they’re allowed to hang around.

The difference in this game, if the Eagles want to come away with the victory, will have to be the Eagles’ insanely productive defensive line in addition to Jalen Hurts’ underrated elite playmaking ability and decision-making skills.

While the story of the Eagles’ season has undoubtedly been Saquon Barkley, their bullying offensive line, and their smothering defense, Jalen Hurts has quietly been rushing and passing this team up and down the field in the most critical moments, and in Philly’s most critical games.

Eagles/Rams #highlights for those who missed it… or anyone who just wanted to watch Jared Verse chase the back of Saquon's jersey again#GoBirds #FlyEaglesFly

— Vote The Process (@votetheprocess.bsky.social) 2025-01-20T00:06:42.021Z

Hurts is the only QB who has accounted for more than 18 points in the playoffs (he’s scored 24), and he has a higher playoff completion % than Mahomes, Stafford, Lamar, and Jayden Daniels (per FOX Sports).

Hurts also ranks second to only Lamar in YPC among playoff QBs, leads QBs in rushing TDs, and has the longest run of the playoffs by a quarterback.

As another proof point of Hurts’ rushing prowess, not including passing TDs, Hurts is the only quarterback in NFL history who has scored three touchdowns in the Super Bowl. He’s also one of only seven players overall who have scored three TDs in the Super Bowl (not including passing TDs).

Hurts can dissect defenses, throw on the run, power through defenders like a running back (remember, he once ran for 1,000 yards in a single season in college), hit tight-window throws, and launch deep ball with plenty of air that often land perfectly in A.J. Brown’s arms just outside his shoulder despite a defender draped on his back like a cape in the wind.

There are only eight QBs who have reached two Super Bowls in their first five seasons, and two of them are Mahomes and Hurts. Half the list is in the Hall of Fame.

Moreover, over the last three seasons, Hurts has a better touchdown to turnover ratio than Mahomes and trails Mahomes in completion percentage and passer rating by only one point over that span.

Although Hurts ranks second to last in pass YPG in terms of playoff QBs, one could make the argument that is almost exclusively due to Saquon Barkley’s historic rushing success.

At the moment, Saquon is just 30 yards shy of the all-time record for rushing yards in a single season including playoffs. Trailing Terrell Davis, Saquon is the only player NFL history with 400 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns in the postseason.

Saquon is 30 yards shy of the single-season rushing record including playoffs.Currently chasing Terrell Davis…#Eagles #GoBirds #FlyEaglesFly

— Vote The Process (@votetheprocess.bsky.social) 2025-01-31T13:45:31.857Z

Barkley led the league in rushing during the regular season, and he and the Eagles’ offensive line have picked up where they left off this postseason.

Saquon leads postseason rushers in:

• rushing yards
• rushing yards per game
• rushing TDs
• YPC among RBs with at least 15 attempts
• rushes for 20+ yards
• rushes for 1st downs

ELECTRIC#FlyEaglesFly

— Vote The Process (@votetheprocess.bsky.social) 2025-01-27T21:56:43.203Z

While having Saquon in your backfield makes anyone a better quarterback, Hurts is hitting fourth down throws and rushing like he wants to out-do Saquon every time he has the ball.

Hurts might have to do just that in this game considering the Chiefs have not allowed an 100-yard rusher in the playoffs since 2019.

Hurts has rushed for the second-most first downs among playoff QBs, and has rushed for the second-most yards, trailing only Jayden Daniels (per ESPN).

It helps that in addition to Saquon, Hurts has a bevvy of targets to distribute the ball to who are among the top-10 players at their position.

One of those studs is Dallas Goedert, who has gotten healthy and become as key to the Eagles offense as deregulation and defunding of basic resources is key to Donald Trump’s presidential strategy.

Philadelphia is using creative ways to get the ball in their playmaker’s hands too, as their using everything in the playbook from TE screens, to end arounds, and everything in-between.

Right now Goedert leads TEs in postseason receiving yards (5th overall), catches for 20+ yards (2nd overall), YAC (3rd overall), and he ranks second in receptions for 1st downs (6th overall, per ESPN).

Goedert’s mind-boggling size/speed combination not only makes him a mismatch against virtually any defender who isn’t Kam Chancellor reincarnated on HGH, but it also makes Goedert one of the best blocking TEs in the NFL:

#Eagles run game this season with Dallas Goedert (EPA/rush): .163 (1st in the #NFL by a mile)Without: .057

— Vote The Process (@votetheprocess.bsky.social) 2025-01-16T20:11:19.704Z

It has been well-established that A.J. Brown is one of the best receivers in football, and is statistically the most productive receiver against man coverage in the NFL this season, DeVonta Smith is often the forgotten man in this offense from a national media perspective.

The last time the Eagles and Chiefs faced off in Super Bowl LVII, Smith had the most receiving yards in the game and was the only player with 100 receiving yards.

While it might not seem like it to the casual observer, Smith is actually equally important to the Eagles’ passing offense as A.J. Brown, and he runs routes with Justin Jefferson-like suddenness and has some of the most dependable hands in the NFL (fourth in catch percentage among WRs during the regular season).

On the defensive side, talking about anyone in particular almost feels like a disservice to the rest of this supremely talented roster.

But for starters, there’s a reason Zach Baun was announced as one of the five finalists for the NFL’s defensive player of the year and right now ranks second in solo tackles in the playoffs to only Reed Blankenship.

Baun and the rest of the Eagles defense are also hunting for turnovers as well as any team in the league.

Philly leads playoff teams in turnover differential and ranked sixth in turnover differential during the regular season. Baun is a major reason why, and he leads playoff defenders in forced fumbles while fellow inside linebacker Oren Burks leads the playoffs in recovered fumbles (per CBS).

Baun’s five forced fumbles on the year also trails only T.J. Watt for the most forced fumbles in the NFL this season.

The Eagles NFC Championship win against the Commanders in 60 seconds 📺#Eagles #GoBirds #NFLchampionship #highlights #FlyEaglesFly

— Vote The Process (@votetheprocess.bsky.social) 2025-01-27T00:02:30.682Z

Moreover, whether it was Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes, the Eagles have played their best in the biggest moments when their Georgian defensive line wins one-on-one matchups with ease.

Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith are two of the most talented defensive lineman in the entire league, and if the Eagles want to make Mahomes look like the Mahomes that lost to the Bucs and not the one that beat them the last time these teams faced off in this game, Carter and Smith will need to do their part early and often.

That should be far from a problem, as right now Carter has two sacks and three pass deflections while Nolan Smith leads playoff defenders in sacks with four.

Team matchup stats

• Points per game
  • Eagles (1st)
  • Chiefs (5th)
• Yards per game
  • Eagles (6th)
  • Chiefs (9th)
• YPG allowed
  • Eagles (8th)
  • Chiefs (9th)
• PPG allowed:
  • Eagles (2nd)
  • Chiefs (6th)

Again, while a variety of stats favor the Eagles, you can basically count on Mahomes and the Chiefs nullifying those into this basically being an even matchup for most of the game, unless the Eagles are able to play completely flawless football and never punt while committing zero turnovers.

But between the Eagles’ elite defensive line, having the best running back in the league combined with one of the best offensive lines in the league, combined with the only player in NFL history with at least 6,500 passing yards and 1,500 rushing yards in their first 30 starts (yes, Jalen Hurts), the Eagles should make enough plays to come out with the win this time around considering they overmatch the Chiefs talent-wise on paper at so many positions.

Jordan Mailata apologizes to AJ Brown for using him to pancake 2 defenders 😭#Eagles #FlyEaglesFly #GoBirds

— Vote The Process (@votetheprocess.bsky.social) 2025-01-30T13:18:55.169Z

And while Jalen Hurts and the Eagles’ defensive line should be the difference makers on the field, the key difference in the game could come on the sideline in terms of Sirianni’s fourth-down decision making and overall strategy.

Despite being maligned by the media at various points throughout his career and this season, Sirianni’s record speaks for itself at this point considering he’s been in two Super Bowls within his first four years of being Philadelphia’s head coach.

Including playoffs, since 2021 when Sirianni joined the Eagles, he trails only Andy Reid in winning percentage and has won 69.7% of his games over that span.

If you’re looking for one final analytical proof point for the Eagles getting their revenge in this one, look no further than the fact that the Eagles have a +210 point differential this season (including playoffs), over 100 more points than the Chiefs who currently have a +79 point differential.